Trends & Gotchas

A Hype Cycle is a graphic representation of the maturity, adoption and business application of specific technologies.

Since 1995, Gartner has used Hype Cycles to characterize the over-enthusiasm or "hype" and subsequent disappointment that typically happens with the introduction of new technologies (see Understanding Gartner's Hype Cycles) for an introduction to the Hype Cycle concepts). Hype Cycles also show how and when technologies move beyond the hype, offer practical benefits and become widely accepted.

1. "Technology Trigger"

The first phase of a Hype Cycle is the "technology trigger" or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.

2. "Peak of Inflated Expectations"

In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.

3. "Trough of Disillusionment"

Technologies enter the "trough of disillusionment" because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.

4. "Slope of Enlightenment"

Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the "slope of enlightenment" and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.

5. "Plateau of Productivity"

A technology reaches the "plateau of productivity" as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.

Garner Group, Understanding Hype Cycles - May 30, 2003

1. Solve the smallest possible problem (that is still big enough to matter) for the user and know exactly what problem you're trying to solve.
2. Get a responsive and chatty audience using the product.
3. Launch. Now. Tomorrow. Every day.
4. Distribute. Distribute. Distribute.
5. Don't hold users against their will.
6. Be mind numbingly simple.
7. Get people hooked on free.
8. Don't waste any money on marketing.
9. Don't overfund.
10. No one sucks.

Richard Farson, 10 Steps to a Hugely Successful Web 2.0 Company

To educate a man in mind and not in morals is to educate a menace to society.

Theodore Roosevelt

1. Nothing is as invisible as the obvious
2. Once you find a management technique that works, give it up
3. The opposite of a profound truth is also true
4. Effective managers are not in control
5. We think we want creativity or change, but we really don't
6. The more we communicate, the less we communicate
7. The better things are, the worse they feel
8. Planning is an ineffective way to bring about change
9. Morale is unrelated to productivity
10. My advice is don't take my advice

Richard Farson, Management of the Absurd - 1996

A bad word whispered will echo a hundred miles.

Once a word leaves your mouth, you cannot chase it back even with the swiftest horse.

Chinese Proverb

1. Don't network just to network
2. Take names
3. Build it before you need it
4. Never eat alone
5. Be interesting
6. Manage the gatekeeper. Artfully.
7. Always ask
8. Don't keep score
9. Ping constantly
10. Find anchor tenants. Feed them.

Inc.com, Tahl Raz, The 10 Secrets of a Master Networker - January 2003